I. Project Context and Development Challenges
Yemen faces an intricate and compounding set of challenges around the nexus of development, conflict, and climate that exhibit significant regional variation. Yemen has long been the poorest country in the Middle East and North Africa and has the highest population growth rate globally, increasing pressures on water, food, and essential infrastructure and services. Prior to the onset of the conflict in 2014, the economy was caught in a jobless slow growth cycle leading to stagnant per capita income and rising levels of youth unemployment that have been on a downward trajectory. The population living in poverty had increased from 35 percent in 2005/2006 to 48.6 percent in 2014, the last year for which poverty data are available. The outbreak of the conflict and the recent effects of the regional conflict of October 2023 have subsequently had devastating effects on the country’s social and economic development, fragmenting the country and exacerbating pre-existing vulnerabilities, with 60 percent of households in need of humanitarian assistance in 2025. Fragile, conflict and violence (FCV) affected countries like Yemen are not only disproportionally exposed to climate change, but they also lack the capacity to cope with its impacts, suffering more severe and persistent GDP losses than other countries. This vulnerability to climate change is even more pronounced in coastal areas.
Yemen's coastal regions, including key urban centers such as Aden, Al Hodeidah, and Al Mukalla, serve as economic hubs for fisheries, trade, and agriculture. However, these areas face intensifying climate threats, including, pluvial floods, heat waves, droughts, cyclones and storm surges which are increasing in frequency leading to widespread damage to infrastructure; coastal flooding and erosion exacerbated by sea-level rise and unregulated urban expansion, places vulnerable communities at risk; rising temperatures and changing precipitation patterns threaten food security and water resources and loss of mangroves, coral reefs, and sand dunes has reduced natural protection against storm surges and flooding.
The objective of this assignment is twofold, it will be first to improve the understanding of the challenges for livability, resilience and employment creation in coastal areas in Yemen; secondly, it will produce a roadmap of possible reforms and institutional management activities to strengthen coastal management, and will identify and prioritize key investments and innovative solutions.
The activities will be organized under 3 pillars:
Pillar 1. Furthering the understanding of the urban-coastal nexus. The firm will be asked to ground truth the results of various preliminary analyses completed by the World Bank Group on the selected urban areas. These analyses consist of geospatial information assessing the livability, vulnerability to natural hazards, and other socioeconomic information. The firm will also be expected to complete analytics on industrial economics on the most important industries within each of the selected coastal cities to identify challenges in the value chain to spur economic activity impacted by natural hazards.
Pillar 2. Preparing a roadmap for reform/institutional strengthening to better manage coastal hazards and create jobs. The chosen firm is also expected to complete an institutional assessment, including a gap analysis for each city to determine their capacity to manage coastal hazards. The firm will prepare a roadmap document highlighting reforms and capacity building activity recommendations for integrated coastal zone management.
Pillar 3. Identification and prioritization of key investments and innovative solutions. The firm is expected to outline potential areas of intervention for the selected urban areas to enhance resilience of coastal communities through job creation, and to build the resilience of the urban system to coastal hazards. The focus is on identifying climate resilient infrastructure and urban development approaches (e.g., integration of stormwater management and open space, nature-based solutions to manage sea level rise (SLR)).
The activities will support the Yemen Integrated Urban Services Emergency Project II (P175791) which will house the activities and can serve as a vehicle to operationalize findings if demand and funding becomes available. It will be complemented by other existing activities including a National DRM and Hydromet assessment currently ongoing, which is financed by a Bank Executed Trust Fund.
This assignment will focus on Aden, which is a strategic port city exposed to cyclones, flooding, and extreme heatwaves, Al Hodeidah, which is a key economic hub vulnerable to sea-level rise, storm surges, and recurrent floods and Al Mukulla, which is a growing urban center with significant exposure to coastal erosion and tropical cyclones. However, the selection of cities may change depending on conditions on the ground while carrying out the assignment.