Background

Nature-Based Solutions (NBS) are becoming increasingly recognized as a scalable solution that can address a host of climate, environmental and socio-economic challenges in the rural sector. However, the ways in which the potential extent of NBS is measured and demonstrated to decision-makers remains to be developed. Geospatial analysis is the best way to communicate to decision-makers the potential extent of NBS in their country context, but there are few, authoritative approaches to analyzing the extent of different NBS within multiple countries.  Currently, there are many geospatial approaches to estimate and depict suitable areas of different NBS in the rural sector; however, these approaches are usually very context or project specific, rendering it more difficult to apply a single, overarching methodology to multiple country contexts, especially applicable to Least Developed Countries (LDCs). Therefore, the World Bank is seeking a consultancy that will devise a well-researched methodology for identifying suitable areas of NBS using geospatial tools that is globally applicable, with a focus on low- and lower-middle income countries.

The consultancy will be led by the NBS Invest Global Knowledge Platform (NBS Invest). NBS Invest is an initiative of the Global Environment Facility (GEF) and World Bank, launched in 2023, to increase funding for and mainstream NbS into climate mitigation and adaptation projects in LDCs. With funding from the GEF’s Least Developed Countries Fund (LDCF) NBS Invest offers technical, financial, knowledge, and capacity building support to LDC governments through World Bank projects in the environment, water, urban, agriculture, transport and energy sectors, in collaboration with relevant ministries and partner organizations. The project aims to increase: (i) planning and resources for NbS through World Bank projects and/or investments, (ii) policy recognition and high-level policy support for NbS adoption, (iii) country-level ability to design and apply NBS initiatives, and (iv) improved information and knowledge sharing on NbS best practices, lessons, and experiences.

Objective and scope of the consultancy

NBS Invest is seeking a center of excellence or consulting firm to develop a well-researched, science-backed approach to identifying suitable areas for and prioritizing NBS on threatened and degraded landscapes to support adaptation and resilience, including jobs and income generation for smallholders, in the rural agricultural and forestry sector in a cost and time-efficient manner.

The methodology must be able to perform the following sequential analytical steps:

1.       Based on a defined spatial boundary, identify the main climatic risks/hazards, environmental, and/or socio-economic pressures (e.g., flooding, land degradation, unsustainable land use, as possible, and be able to identify the source of these issues), as well as identify and estimate the area under threat or degraded conditions, and quantitatively estimate their negative impacts on the people and the environment (e.g., loss of agricultural productivity, biodiversity loss [1])

2.       At the country-level, assess where in which areas a range of NBS can provide solutions to these challenges that are relevant for Least Developed Countries (LDCs) for key pressures/threats and prioritize the most feasible and impactful option based on criteria and valuation of their various benefit streams. At the same time, the methodology must be able to provide estimates and geospatially map all areas suitable for each NBS option within the defined spatial boundary.

This methodology should be problem-first-oriented, in that the identification of NBS must be based on key climatic and/or environmental challenges. The methodology should (geospatially) identify various degraded/threatened areas (such as biodiversity hotspots/protected areas, agriculture areas, and forestry areas) and account for the consequences of inaction or the lack of implementation of measures to address these threats. It should incorporate in its suitability analysis the feasibility of implementing NBS in currently suitable areas changes according to a projected climate model.

The written methodology should prioritize the use of publicly available and World Bank proprietary data sources to identify suitable areas at a reasonably high resolution (~30 m) to demonstrate to decision makers and inform project preparation teams about the extent of NBS potential in rural landscapes. Identifying suitable areas will require a comprehensive understanding of the goals of NBS in the agricultural and forestry sectors, as well as the types of data sources needed to construct a robust, multi-criteria suitability analysis, thus requiring the incorporation of several different variables, including (though not limited to) climate, environmental, socio-economic, and topographic data.

The methodology should explain how to process and combine these various variables, and should indicate the geospatial tools, processes, and steps taken to produce maps that indicate the suitability of NBS. The consultancy will define the thresholds for suitability based on science-backed evidence (e.g., literature, agronomic reports, leading tested methodologies), and will construct a scale for suitability based on this evidence. The definition of suitability will be discussed as part of this task, including social, environmental, geographical, climatic, economic, financial, and other considerations, and accounting a reasonable NBS lifetime (i.e., at least 20 years). The methodology should also demonstrate the impact of climate change if NBS in the agricultural and forestry sector are not adopted, i.e. the methodology should account for the change in areas that would otherwise be suitable for NBS implementation in 30-50 years. This can be done through the modelling of land degradation, soil fertility loss, extreme weather events, climate change (precipitation change and temperature increase). The methodology should also account for synergistic benefits of ecosystem goods and services across landscapes in which there are various suitable NBS. Likewise, it could be that a given area is suitable for multiple NBS interventions; the consultant shall account for how a decision between suitable NBS in each area should be made (i.e. a way to compare different NBS suitable in one area should be devised), allowing the user to make the most informed decision on investments that provide the greatest outcomes.

The consultancy will be developed to support the NBS Invest project, which adopts the UN definition of NBS as “actions to protect, conserve, restore, sustainably use and manage natural or modified terrestrial, freshwater, coastal and marine ecosystems, which address social, economic and environmental challenges effectively and adaptively, while simultaneously providing human well-being, ecosystem services and resilience and biodiversity benefits”. The project highlights the role of ecosystems and biodiversity as a core component of NBS, ensuring that NBS are also benefiting nature. Improving biodiversity should also be considered as a tool for addressing agricultural productivity, for example. addressing Based on this definition, and building on the Catalogue of NBS for Adaptation and Resilience in Rural Landscapes being developed by the World Bank, the consultant will develop a set of methodologies for specific NBS, which can include (but are not limited to):

a)       Agroforestry Systems

b)      Assisted natural regeneration

c)       Forested, Temporal, Exclusion Zones

d)      Reforestation

e)       Afforestation

f)        Community-Based Forest Management Systems

g)       Sustainable livestock/pastoralism

h)       Agrosilvopastoral systems

i)         Rotational Grazing

The consultant/consultancy will collaborate with the World Bank team to prioritize the main NBS to be explored under this contract, based on the World Bank catalogue for rural nature-based solutions (currently under development).

Background

Nature-Based Solutions (NBS) are becoming increasingly recognized as a scalable solution that can address a host of climate, environmental and socio-economic challenges in the rural sector. However, the ways in which the potential extent of NBS is measured and demonstrated to decision-makers remains to be developed. Geospatial analysis is the best way to communicate to decision-makers the potential extent of NBS in their country context, but there are few, authoritative approaches to analyzing the extent of different NBS within multiple countries.  Currently, there are many geospatial approaches to estimate and depict suitable areas of different NBS in the rural sector; however, these approaches are usually very context or project specific, rendering it more difficult to apply a single, overarching methodology to multiple country contexts, especially applicable to Least Developed Countries (LDCs). Therefore, the World Bank is seeking a consultancy that will devise a well-researched methodology for identifying suitable areas of NBS using geospatial tools that is globally applicable, with a focus on low- and lower-middle income countries.

The consultancy will be led by the NBS Invest Global Knowledge Platform (NBS Invest). NBS Invest is an initiative of the Global Environment Facility (GEF) and World Bank, launched in 2023, to increase funding for and mainstream NbS into climate mitigation and adaptation projects in LDCs. With funding from the GEF’s Least Developed Countries Fund (LDCF) NBS Invest offers technical, financial, knowledge, and capacity building support to LDC governments through World Bank projects in the environment, water, urban, agriculture, transport and energy sectors, in collaboration with relevant ministries and partner organizations. The project aims to increase: (i) planning and resources for NbS through World Bank projects and/or investments, (ii) policy recognition and high-level policy support for NbS adoption, (iii) country-level ability to design and apply NBS initiatives, and (iv) improved information and knowledge sharing on NbS best practices, lessons, and experiences.

Objective and scope of the consultancy

NBS Invest is seeking a center of excellence or consulting firm to develop a well-researched, science-backed approach to identifying suitable areas for and prioritizing NBS on threatened and degraded landscapes to support adaptation and resilience, including jobs and income generation for smallholders, in the rural agricultural and forestry sector in a cost and time-efficient manner.

The methodology must be able to perform the following sequential analytical steps:

1.       Based on a defined spatial boundary, identify the main climatic risks/hazards, environmental, and/or socio-economic pressures (e.g., flooding, land degradation, unsustainable land use, as possible, and be able to identify the source of these issues), as well as identify and estimate the area under threat or degraded conditions, and quantitatively estimate their negative impacts on the people and the environment (e.g., loss of agricultural productivity, biodiversity loss [1])

2.       At the country-level, assess where in which areas a range of NBS can provide solutions to these challenges that are relevant for Least Developed Countries (LDCs) for key pressures/threats and prioritize the most feasible and impactful option based on criteria and valuation of their various benefit streams. At the same time, the methodology must be able to provide estimates and geospatially map all areas suitable for each NBS option within the defined spatial boundary.

This methodology should be problem-first-oriented, in that the identification of NBS must be based on key climatic and/or environmental challenges. The methodology should (geospatially) identify various degraded/threatened areas (such as biodiversity hotspots/protected areas, agriculture areas, and forestry areas) and account for the consequences of inaction or the lack of implementation of measures to address these threats. It should incorporate in its suitability analysis the feasibility of implementing NBS in currently suitable areas changes according to a projected climate model.

The written methodology should prioritize the use of publicly available and World Bank proprietary data sources to identify suitable areas at a reasonably high resolution (~30 m) to demonstrate to decision makers and inform project preparation teams about the extent of NBS potential in rural landscapes. Identifying suitable areas will require a comprehensive understanding of the goals of NBS in the agricultural and forestry sectors, as well as the types of data sources needed to construct a robust, multi-criteria suitability analysis, thus requiring the incorporation of several different variables, including (though not limited to) climate, environmental, socio-economic, and topographic data.

The methodology should explain how to process and combine these various variables, and should indicate the geospatial tools, processes, and steps taken to produce maps that indicate the suitability of NBS. The consultancy will define the thresholds for suitability based on science-backed evidence (e.g., literature, agronomic reports, leading tested methodologies), and will construct a scale for suitability based on this evidence. The definition of suitability will be discussed as part of this task, including social, environmental, geographical, climatic, economic, financial, and other considerations, and accounting a reasonable NBS lifetime (i.e., at least 20 years). The methodology should also demonstrate the impact of climate change if NBS in the agricultural and forestry sector are not adopted, i.e. the methodology should account for the change in areas that would otherwise be suitable for NBS implementation in 30-50 years. This can be done through the modelling of land degradation, soil fertility loss, extreme weather events, climate change (precipitation change and temperature increase). The methodology should also account for synergistic benefits of ecosystem goods and services across landscapes in which there are various suitable NBS. Likewise, it could be that a given area is suitable for multiple NBS interventions; the consultant shall account for how a decision between suitable NBS in each area should be made (i.e. a way to compare different NBS suitable in one area should be devised), allowing the user to make the most informed decision on investments that provide the greatest outcomes.

The consultancy will be developed to support the NBS Invest project, which adopts the UN definition of NBS as “actions to protect, conserve, restore, sustainably use and manage natural or modified terrestrial, freshwater, coastal and marine ecosystems, which address social, economic and environmental challenges effectively and adaptively, while simultaneously providing human well-being, ecosystem services and resilience and biodiversity benefits”. The project highlights the role of ecosystems and biodiversity as a core component of NBS, ensuring that NBS are also benefiting nature. Improving biodiversity should also be considered as a tool for addressing agricultural productivity, for example. addressing Based on this definition, and building on the Catalogue of NBS for Adaptation and Resilience in Rural Landscapes being developed by the World Bank, the consultant will develop a set of methodologies for specific NBS, which can include (but are not limited to):

a)       Agroforestry Systems

b)      Assisted natural regeneration

c)       Forested, Temporal, Exclusion Zones

d)      Reforestation

e)       Afforestation

f)        Community-Based Forest Management Systems

g)       Sustainable livestock/pastoralism

h)       Agrosilvopastoral systems

i)         Rotational Grazing

The consultant/consultancy will collaborate with the World Bank team to prioritize the main NBS to be explored under this contract, based on the World Bank catalogue for rural nature-based solutions (currently under development).

Deliverables

The consultancy will deliver the following products:

1)      Stock-take review (during project inception) of available NBS suitability and prioritization methodologies, which includes recommending which available NBS methodologies are robust and can be deployed within the rural scan and which still require further research and development.

2)      Set of written methodologies[2] for each NBS in the agricultural and forestry sectors (at least 1 methodology for each of the NBS highlighted in the list above), including a step-by-step data processing guideline, data use prioritization framework (including for the use of locally available data when applicable), data catalogue, and a results presentation format. The scope and number of methodologies will be agreed upon completion of the stock take review. These methodologies must be interoperable and deployable in an integrated manner within a defined spatial boundary and climate, environmental and social threats/risks.

3)      Final report piloting all methodologies: each methodology should be tested through demonstrations (report with maps and text explaining how the methodology was used) for each NBS identified in these terms of reference, in a GIS environment in Least Developed Countries, which is the NBS Invest team’s priority area of work. The country or countries in which these methodologies will be tested will be further discussed between NBS Invest and the consultant/consultancy.

4)      Standard presentation materials and live presentations on the use of all NBS methodologies in selected LDCs.