Enhancement of Zambia Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) AFOLU sector

Zambia is rich in natural capital, and its national economy is primarily driven by the exploitation of natural resources (such as land, water, forests and wildlife). With average rural poverty level as high as 80.35%, rural communities in Zambia almost entirely depend on the use of natural resources for their survival. With forest cover of nearly 66% (over 50 million ha) of Zambia’s total land area, the country remains one of the most forested countries in southern Africa. However, forest and associated resources are under serious threat of degradation. Deforestation in Zambia is a complex issue driven by multiple factors. The primary drivers include charcoal production, agricultural expansion, and weak forest governance, proximity to roads and settlements, and economic factors.

The government has designed policies and strategies to propel an integrated approach to sustainable development of the country. Important policies and country development strategies include the 8^th National Development Plan, the Green Growth Strategy, National Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan (NBSAP), National Adaptation Plans of Action (NAPA), Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) 2021, UNCCD National Action Programmes (NAP), Land degradation Neutrality targets, National Adaptation Plan (2023), National Climate Change Response Strategy (NCCRS), Zambia Forestry Policy and the Zambia Wildlife Policy, among others.

The primary objective of this assignment is to support the World Bank’ in its efforts to help the Government of Zambia (GRZ) enhance Zambia’s National Determined Contribution (NDC) in the Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) sector. 

The primary objective of this assignment is to support the World Bank’ in its efforts to help the Government of Zambia (GRZ) enhance Zambia’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) in the Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) sector. The World Bank seeks to engage a highly professional and independent firm to undertake the following tasks focused on the AFOLU sector:

Task 1: Review and level-set Zambia’s NDC adaptation ambition for the AFOLU sector

·     Task 1.1. Consult Existing risk and vulnerability assessments: Review and incorporate findings from comprehensive assessment of Zambia's vulnerability to climate change, Climate risk assessments and adaptation plans and all relevant data and information available; update adaptation priorities based on the most recent data and climate projections for Zambia.

·      Task 1.2. Adaptation Priority Measures, and costing, including costing assumptions: Identify, evaluate, and prioritize new and existing adaptation measures in the AFOLU sector.

·    Task 1.3. Baselines and Indicators: Review and establish baselines and develop sector-level performance indicators and targets for tracking adaptation progress for the AFOLU sector: This requires setting up monitoring systems, defining metrics, and establishing reporting protocols. These indicators should also align with the 11 targets of the UAE Framework for Global Climate Resilience.

·     Task 1.4. Review and update the NDC Investment Framework (Adaptation actions) and Estimate Financial Requirements/Investment Plan for the AFOLU sector.

Task 2: Review and level-set Zambia's NDC 3.0 mitigation ambition in the AFOLU sector

·    Task 2.1:  Data collection and update:  Collect and update all information and data required to assess the mitigation components of the AFOLU sector in Zambia's current NDC. Review the estimates provided in the latest NDC stocktake report and propose areas for enhancement in the NDC.

·      Task 2.2: BAU and low Emission Scenarios from current NDC: Review and propose areas for enhancement, and update as needed the current NDC Business as Usual (BAU) emission scenarios extending up to 2030 or beyond, and low emissions development scenarios incorporating the latest data and trends, and review findings. This includes modeling and projecting emissions based on historical data and anticipated economic and sectoral growth.

·    Task 2.3: Mitigation Measures and costing, including costing assumptions: Identify, evaluate, and provide recommendations on prioritizing new and existing mitigation measures and actions in the AFOLU sector.

·   Task 2.4. Review and update the NDC Investment Framework (Mitigation actions) and Estimate Financial Requirements/Investment Plan for the AFOLU sector

Task 3. Update and Enhancement of the Implementation Framework focused on the AFOLU sector

Following the revision and enhancement of the NDC (Tasks 1 and 2), the firm will update the latest Zambia NDC Implementation Framework focused on the AFOLU sector to align with the targets and costings. While the NFP 2014 is being implemented, the updated implementation framework will need to reflect the changing circumstances within the forest sector but also align it better with the agriculture sector in the changing climate.

Task 4. Review and enhancement of the NDC Investment Plan for the AFOLU sector

·     The development of the Investment Plan will build on tasks 1, 2, and 3 (updated and enhanced NDC and revised NDC Implementation Framework for the AFOLU sector). To facilitate implementation, the support will include a strong focus on investment planning to make sure that the NDC is realistic and implementable and in line with the country's financial capacity and macroeconomic stability conditions. Detail the respective shares of public and private investment as well as domestic and foreign finance.

Task 5. NDC 3.0 Stakeholder consultations for the AFOLU sector

Consultations: Conduct extensive stakeholder consultations to ensure an inclusive and participatory process in the enhancement of the AFOLU sector in the NDC, gather all necessary information, data, and feedback from stakeholders and share the results of this assessment. This includes organizing workshops, focus group discussions, and public hearings to gather input and build consensus. Stakeholder consultations must include multi-stakeholders' representation of Civil Society Organizations (CSOs), Private Sector and other stakeholders for the AFOLU sector.

ELIGIBILITY
Firm experience

The firm should have:

·         Expertise in developing, costing and implementing NDCs.

·         Demonstrated experience in NDC enhancement, climate change mitigation, and adaptation projects.

• Expertise in GHG inventory.
• Ensure the involvement of sector experts and technical specialists in the Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land Use (AFOLU) sector.
• Experience in stakeholder engagement and capacity building.
• Deep expertise in Zambia's climate policies and strategies, with a proven ability to conduct extensive work in the country.
• Relevant experience with the new context on carbon credits since the last NDC update.

•         Proven experience in helping governments with adaptation and mitigation targets.

•          Capacity to conduct comprehensive stakeholder consultations and technical analyses.

  
  

SUBMISSION REQUIREMENTS
Interested firms should submit the following in maximum 4 pages:

·       Expression of Interest (EOI): A brief statement of the firm’s technical qualifications and experience to carry out the tasks described above.

PLEASE NOTE THAT EOIs OVER 4 PAGES WILL NOT BE REVIEWED.

NOTES

The assignment is expected to commence in March 2025.

The firm will report to the World Bank task team leaders for this activity.

Coordination with the Government of the Republic of Zambia, NDC-Partnership and other partners and donors will be essential to ensure complementarity and avoid duplication of efforts.

If you encounter technical difficulties while uploading documents, please send an e-mail to the Help Desk at corporateprocurement@worldbank.org prior to the submission deadline.

We look forward to receiving your expressions of interest.