The International Finance Corporation (IFC) is
seeking expressions of interest from qualified consultants (firm) to develop a
model for delivering a sustainable, affordable, and reliable heating and
cooling system in Kyrgyzstan using 5th Generation Networked Ground Source Heat
Pumps (NGSHP) technology.
A. Background
District heating systems in Central Asia are
outdated, often gas or coal-fired, and need upgrading. Gas supplies are running
low, making new gas heating systems impractical. This has led to unsafe,
unreliable, and expensive alternative heating methods. Regulatory and
operational deficiencies further exacerbate the inefficiency of the district
heating sector.
Governments are initiating programs to
modernize the district heating sector, improve energy efficiency, and explore
renewable energy sources.
Geothermal technologies range from deep geothermal for electricity
generation to shallow systems using ground source heat pumps (GHP) for heating
and cooling. Shallow geothermal, deployable almost anywhere, offers efficient
heating and cooling without relying on critical metals. When connected on a
shared thermal network, GHPs can provide even greater efficiency. Geothermal
heating is considered the most energy-efficient and environmentally safe by the
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. With about 50% of global energy used for
heating and cooling, shallow geothermal systems hold significant potential for
decarbonization. They are being scaled up in regions like the US, EU, China,
and Turkey but are less common in the Middle East and Central Asia.
In Kyrgyzstan, the country's unique geological
and climatic conditions present promising opportunities for geothermal energy
system deployment. Characterized by its mountainous terrain and continental
climate, Kyrgyzstan is well-suited for ground source heat pump technology.
Despite the nation's significant potential for shallow geothermal energy, it
remains largely untapped, offering a substantial opportunity to reduce reliance
on fossil fuels and enhance energy security.
Kyrgyzstan's district heating systems are
outdated and in need of upgrading. Gas supplies are diminishing, making new gas
heating systems impractical. This has led to unsafe, unreliable, and expensive
alternative heating methods. In Kyrgyzstan, energy is predominantly sourced
from hydropower, which accounted for 77% of the total installed capacity and
85% of electricity generation in 2021. The country relies on seven large
hydropower plants (3,030 MW) and nine small HPPs (38 MW), alongside two thermal
combined heat and power plants primarily using coal, with gas as a backup. This
heavy reliance on hydropower makes Kyrgyzstan vulnerable to energy deficits due
to variable water flow, which peaks in summer, while electricity demand peaks
in winter.
In Bishkek, the residential sector is the
largest energy consumer, primarily relying on coal-based heating. The city's
population of 1.07 million sees 98% of single-family homes using individual
heating (73% coal, 22% electricity, 2% gas). Over the past decade, electricity
and heating consumption increased by over 70%, but no major new power plants
have been built, leaving many existing plants operating with reduced outputs
and higher breakdown risks. Consequently, the domestic power supply
increasingly fails to meet the growing demand. In February 2024, the Kyrgyz
government instructed Bishkek's administration to prohibit new connections to
central heating due to limited capacity.
B. The Objective
of the Assignment
The purpose of this assignment is to define the development of a pre-feasibility
report that provides detailed analysis of the technical and economic factors
important for the deployment of a utility scale (10,000-30,000 housing units)
networked geothermal system in Kyrgyzstan. This work package will be
instrumental in guiding any potential site selection and detailed engineering
work that would be used to deploy the network as well as in the pursuit of
funding sources to support the work.
C. Scope of Work
The Consultant is expected to
support IFC in proposing and assessing the overall feasibility of deploying
networked geothermal systems in Kyrgyzstan.
The assignment will be to conduct
an analysis across two feasibility metrics:
-
Metric
1 will be technical feasibility. This will involve
the review and analysis of the potential performance of a network of ground
sourced heat pumps in Kyrgyzstan. This should be based on available
documentation and information on the local geology, ground temperatures,
drilling conditions, building stock, regulatory environment, and climate zone
data. Specific attention should be given to an estimate of potential borefield
performance in Kyrgyzstan and a review of any existing ground source heat pump
systems currently in operation.
-
Metric
2 will be economic feasibility. This will involve analysis of the potential
economics of a networked geothermal deployment in Kyrgyzstan.
Specifically, a review of the estimated installation costs for a district scale
system that could serve on the order of 10,000-30,000 household equivalents.
The analysis should also compare the costs for average customers to operate a
ground source heat pump to existing costs for heating and cooling using
traditional solutions. Any current subsidies for either heating or electricity
will also be critical to this analysis in order to get a full picture of the overall
performance vs cost.
Qualification criteria: The selected Consultant should meet minimum required qualifications
for undertaking high-level feasibility studies, GSHP performance analysis,
energy market analysis and cost projections. Prior experience working on heat
pump projects and district energy type systems is desirable.
International consultants or consultants located outside of
the Kyrgyzstan, should have a local
partner and the details should be included in the EOI.
